Oscar nominations

Nominations for the 81st annual Academy Awards were announced this morning and except for a couple surprises (Kate Winslet being nominated for Best Actress in "The Reader" rather than "Revolutionary Road" and no Best Actor nomination for Clint Eastwood for "Gran Torino"), the nominees were pretty much what I was expecting. I haven't seen many of the films, but I will be seeing "Frost/Nixon" this weekend and added "The Visitor" to my Netflix queue. And though I'm not a big fan of Brad Pitt, I'm tempted to see "The Curious of Benjamin Button."

Here are my thoughts on the nominations and likely winners in the major categories, which I know from past experience will likely change as the awards show draws closer. Oscars will be handed out on February 22.

Best Actor:
* Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
* Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
* Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

A couple months ago I would have said Sean Penn had this award all but won, but now I think Mickey Rourke will win for "The Wrestler."

Best Actress:
* Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
* Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

Let's start with who won't win. Angelina Jolie sure won't and Meryl Streep has won before. Melissa Leo's performance in "Frozen River" has been widely praised, but her nomination is her award. Which leaves the race between Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" and Kate Winslet in "The Reader." This is Winslet's sixth nomination and this is the year she will finally win, although I really thought it would be for "Revolutionary Road" rather than for "The Reader."

Best Supporting Actor
* Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
* Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
* Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Do we even need to discuss this? Ledger wins this one posthumously.

Supporting Actress:
* Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
* Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
* Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
* Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

I think Penelope Cruz will get the win for her role in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona." That said, one category usually has a surprise winner and if that's going to happen this year, this will be the category.

Best Director:
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
* “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
* “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
* “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
* “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire."

Best film:
* “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
* “Frost/Nixon”
* “Milk”
* “The Reader”
* “Slumdog Millionaire”

"Slumdog Millionaire" has this one in the bag.